HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray

So back to the days of the Beta-max and VHS we have the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray battle heating up. Blu-Ray by far has the greatest support but HD-DVD has already been shown to consumers. Now lets break it down:

HD-DVD:
Can be made using standard DVD processes
No extra licensing fees
Ready to go, players are ready
Players can play standard DVDs at the same quality or better
Players cost half as much as Blu-Ray players
Microsoft is on board.

Blu-Ray:
Needs complete new lines to make
Has roughly twice the capacity of HD-DVD
Requires seperate licenses for playback on computers (uses Java)
Players cost twice as much as HD-DVD
Players can no play normal DVDs
Players are not yet available
Blu-Ray discs are not yet in production

Hrm...HD-TV is catching on.... which matches HD-DVD or Blu-Ray?

Okay okay what about content? Well its split pretty evenly right now... except HD-DVDs are actually being produced and ready for sell in march, many of which will include a standard DVD playable side... Blu-Ray discs? Unknown.

And one of the major backers of Blu-Ray? Sony. I wouldn't want to be the Sony side this year with how many flops and disasters they've had recently.

So I think HD-DVD will the the winner really quickly. I just can't imagine a format that costs more on both the supplier and consumer end (remember if you double the supplier cost that is the markup the consumer will see, making Blu-Ray anywhere from twice to three times as much as an HD-DVD disc in my best guess), requires hardware that will not play current DVD collections and still costs twice as much, and supported by a company that has already proven to be no consumer friendly with their copy right systems.